By Lorena Ruibal 由劳伦娜瑞保撰写  Published: 22 January 2016 出版:2016/1/22
 However, the global volume of mandarins destined for processing is set to shrink by 6.1% instead, according to the latest USDA citrus report.
 不过, 根据最新的美国农业部柑橘报告,取而代之的情况是,全球加工用桔子的数量将萎缩6.1%。
 

 Global mandarin production for 2015/16 is forecast at a record 28.9 million tonnes, up over 200,000 tones from last year driven by an increase in China’s output, which would offset an expected drop by 16% to 2.91 mln tonnes in the EU.
 由中国的产量增长的推动,2015/16全球桔子产量预计达到创纪录的2890万吨,比去年增加了200,000多吨,这将抵消欧盟将下降16%,至291吨的预计。
 The USDA forecasts China’s mandarin production to surge 600,000 tonnes to a record 20.0 mln tonnes on the back of area expansion in the producing provinces of Guangxi, Hunan, and Hubei.
 美国农业部预测在广西、湖南、湖北产桔省区域扩大的背景下中国桔子产量要飙升600,000吨至创纪录的2000万吨。
 “China’s consumption and exports continue to rise with increased supplies,”  the report goes on.
 该报告接着称“随着供应的增加中国的消费和出口继续上升,”。
 The volume of mandarins going into processing would also rise to 660,000 tonnes, up by 5% year-on-year.
 用于加工用的桔子数量也将增加到660,000吨,较上年同期增长了5%。
 China represents over two-thirds of global production and consumption of mandarins and one-third of global exports.
 中国占全球超过三分之二以上的桔子产量及消费的和全球出口的三分之一。
 Conversely, production in the EU is forecast down by 550,000 tonnes to 2.9 mln tonnes due to unfavourable weather. The volume of mandarins destined for the industry would dip by 18% to 324,000 tonnes.
 相反, 由于不利的天气,欧盟产量预计下降550,000吨,至290万吨,。行业加工用的桔子的数量将下降18%至324,000吨。
 EU exports are projected to be flat on lower available supplies, but consumption would be down 13%, the report says.
 该报告说,欧盟出口因供应较低预计将维持一般,但消费将下降13%。
 US production is forecast to grow 6% to a record 839,000 tonnes, driven primarily by California, whose projected output increase is expected to offset the decline in Florida’s mandarin production.
 主要由加州预计增产将抵消佛罗里达桔子产量下降的驱动,美国的产量预计将增长6%,达到创纪录的839,000吨。
Some 135,000 tonnes of mandarins are expected to be processed, 4,000 tonnes more than in the previous marketing year. Consumption in the country is up by 5% while imports are flat, the report adds. 该报告补充说,约135,000吨的桔子预计将被用来加工,比上个营销年多了4,000吨。美国的消费上升了5%,而进口则是平平。
 Meanwhile, Japan’s production is forecast up 4% to 1.1 mln tonnes with trees exhibiting an on-year fruit set although limited by extremely hot weather. Consumption is expected at over 1.0 mln tonnes, also up 与此同时,日本产量预计上涨4%至110万吨,虽然受到极热天限制桔树展示座果正常。预计消费超过100万吨,也有增长。
 The report noted that fresh consumption continues to expand with greater supplies. Yet total trade is down as exports from Turkey plunged by 25%, despite export growth from China, Morocco, and Israel. 该报告指出, 随着更大的供应新的消费会继续扩大。然而,由于土耳其的出口下降了25%贸易总额下降了,尽管中国,摩洛哥,和以色列出口有所增长。
 Turkey’s production is forecast at a record 1.0 mln tonnes, up 80,000 tonnes from the previous year driven by an increase in acreage. Still, Russia’s ban on imports of some Turkish food items is projected to drag mandarin exports down by 25% to 460,000 tonnes. Consumption is up on trade demand and greater supplies.
 土耳其的产量预计将达到创纪录的100万吨, 因为面积的增加相比前一年增加了80,000吨。然而,俄罗斯禁止进口一些土耳其食品预计拖累桔子出口下降了25%,至460,000吨。在贸易需求和供应扩大的条件下消费是上升的。
 Morocco is set to benefit from Russia’s ban on Turkish mandarins, as Russia may swift to this origin. Production in Morocco is forecast up by 50,000 tonnes to 1.1 mln on increased plantation areas.
 摩洛哥将受益于俄罗斯对土耳其桔子的禁令,俄罗斯可能会转向这个产地。在种植面积增加的条件下摩洛哥的产量预计会增加50,000吨至110万。
As a result, the USDA estimates an increase in exports due to the increase in available supplies and higher demand from Russia for fruit from non-Turkish origins.
 因此,美国农业部估计由于供应的增加及来自俄罗斯对非土耳其产品需求的增加出口也会有增加。
 Analysis分析
 USDA's forecast of a bumper mandarin crop in China for the marketing year 2015/16 contradicts FOODNEWSi nformation gathered from manufacturers and traders in the country.
 美国农业部预测2015/16营销年中国桔子是丰收的与FOODNEWS从该国生产商和贸易商处得来的消息是相矛盾的。
As FOODNEWS already reported, Chinese packers finished the canning season earlier than normal (right after Christmas) due to pressure from sky-high raw material prices prompted by a short crop coupled with few orders from the US, China’s largest market for canned mandarins.
FOODNEWS已经报道了,因为桔子短缺加上来自美国,这个中国最大桔子罐头的市场的订单不多,有原料价格太高的压力, 中国生产工厂比正常提早结束了罐头产季（就在圣诞节后)。
These developments are said to have discouraged Chinese canners to produce large volumes, afraid of losing money by keeping large expensive inventories.
这些进展据说使中国罐头厂商没兴趣大量生产,又害怕会因庞大的库存而亏损。
Also, FOODNEWS is unable to confirm that  there has been an "area expansion in the producing provinces of Guangxi, Hunan, and Hubei", as the USDA report says.
FOODNEWS也无法确认说有美国农业部报告说已经有“在广西、湖南、湖北生产省份中面积扩大的情况“。
Processing mandarins forecast MY2015/16（吨）
2015/16销售年加工用桔子预测表
  Processing 
 mandarins
 forecast
 MY2015/16 (tonnes)
跨年产季          2010/11   2011/12   2012/13   2013/14   2014/15   2015/16
China中国         480,00    600,000   660,000   600,000   630,000   660,000
EU欧盟            495,000   347,000   347,000   303,000   398,000   324,000
Argentina阿根廷   145,000   40,000    63,000    82,000    147,000   150,000
US美国            160,000   153,000   130,000   131,000   131,000   135,000
South Korea南韩   81,000    103,000   56,000    93,000    159,000   95,000
Japan日本         85,000    15,000    81,000    90,000    90,000    90,000
Israel            23,000    38,000    30,000    24,000    45,000    50,000
Other其他         26,000    15,000    17,000    20,000    21,000    21,000
Source: USDA来源:美国农业部
任慧之译自最新FOODNEWS杂志